旅游外汇收入、FDI与国内生产总值的协整分析

蒋才芳; 陈收

旅游外汇收入、FDI与国内生产总值的协整分析

引用本文：蒋才芳,陈收.旅游外汇收入、FDI与国内生产总值的协整分析[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2010,(4):78-83

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作者	单位
蒋才芳	(1吉首大学商学院，湖南吉首416000；2湖南大学工商管理学院，湖南长沙410082)
陈收	湖南大学工商管理学院，湖南长沙410082

中文摘要:运用相关性和协整检验方法，分析旅游外汇收入、FDI和国内生产总值之间的关系，结果显示三者之间存在协整关系，FDI和国内生产总值共同促进了旅游收入的增长，同时旅游外汇收入不论在短期还是长期都显著地促进了国内生产总值的增长，FDI和旅游外汇收入不存在协整关系，国内生产总值与FDI之间存在协整关系，但在5%的显著性水平下它们之间是否存在因果关系受滞后期选择的影响。

中文关键词:旅游外汇收入 FDI 国内生产总值协整

Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Foreign Exchange Income, FDI and GDP

Abstract:This Paper makes use of the method of correlations and Cointegration test to investigate relations of three variables (tourism foreign exchange income, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product). The results show that the three variables pass the cointegration test，the foreign direct investment promotes the tourism foreign exchange income increase with gross domestic product together. And both in the long and short run, the tourism foreign exchange income promote the gross domestic product increase. However, the foreign direct investment does not cointegrate with tourism foreign exchange income. With the 5% significant level, the Granger causality between gross domestic product and foreign direct investment is up to the lags which selected, although they are cointegration.

keywords:tourism foreign exchange income foreign direct investment gross domestic product cointegration

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