财政监督对省级财政支出效率的非线性影响——基于SBM模型和门槛回归模型的实证分析
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引用本文:刘建民,江钰辉,胡小梅.财政监督对省级财政支出效率的非线性影响——基于SBM模型和门槛回归模型的实证分析[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2015,(6):51-57
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刘建民,江钰辉,胡小梅 (1.湖南大学 经济与贸易学院湖南 长沙4100792.湖南财政经济学院湖南 长沙4102053.湖南财政监督理论研究基地湖南 长沙410205) 
中文摘要:我国2002-2012年省级政府财政投入产出数据,采用SBM效率测度模型测算各省财政支出效率,同时运用面板门槛模型估计财政监督对于财政支出效率的非线性影响。研究结果表明:财政监督对于财政支出效率的非线性影响显著,并存在“门槛效应”。以经济发展水平为门槛变量时,当人均GDP低于9826元,财政监督对于财政支出效率有显著的抑制作用;当人均GDP介于9826元和14705元之间,抑制作用有所减弱且显著性降低;而随着人均GDP超过14705元,财政监督力度的加大会促进财政支出效率的提高。以政府支出规模为门槛变量时,财政监督对于财政支出效率始终存在抑制作用,但影响系数和显著性随着政府支出规模的扩大而减小。因此经济发展水平较低的省份应重点监督预算资金结构合理性,而高经济发展水平省份应兼顾决算规模控制和资金结构合理调节。
中文关键词:财政监督  财政支出效率  非线性  SBM模型  门槛回归模型
 
The Nonlinear Effect of Financial Supervision on Provincial Efficiency of Fiscal Expenditure——An Empirical Analysis based on SBM Model and Panel Threshold Model
Abstract:Based on the provincial data of financial input and output during 2002 and 2012 of China, the paper employed SBM model to calculate the provincial efficiency of fiscal expenditure and then adopted the panel threshold model to estimate the nonlinear effect that financial supervision exerted on the efficiency of fiscal expenditure. The results show that the financial supervision has a significant nonlinear effect on the efficiency, and the threshold effect does exist. Regarding the level of economic development as the threshold variable, while the GDP per capita is less than 9826 yuan, the financial supervision has significant inhibition effect on the efficiency of fiscal expenditure. When the GDP per capita floats between 9826 yuan and 14705 yuan, the effect is weakened and has lower significance. When the GDP per capita transcends 14705 yuan, the efficiency would increase along with the rise of the financial supervision. Regarding the scale of government expenditure as the threshold variable, the financial supervision exerts negative influence on the efficiency all along. However, the coefficient and significance would decrease as the scale of government expenditure expands. Therefore, we suggest that provinces with low GDP should focus the supervision on the structure rationality of budget while high-GDP provinces should both control the final scale and adjust the budget structure.
keywords:financial supervision  efficiency of fiscal expenditure  nonlinear  SBM model  Panel Threshold Model
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