| 贷款冲击、货币供给冲击与宏观经济波动 |
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| 引用本文：刘轶,王刚,李旭彪.贷款冲击、货币供给冲击与宏观经济波动[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2016,(4):100-106 |
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| 中文摘要:建立一个动态随机一般均衡模型，在数量调控规则下对贷款冲击与货币供给冲击的宏观经济波动效应进行了系统分析。结合中国经济的实际情况进行估计，并引入贷款冲击与货币供给冲击的相关性，发现二者在短期内会使产出、投资和通胀率出现较大波动，贷款冲击波动性更大。因此，中国的货币政策在短期内应谨慎对待信贷扩张与宽松货币政策，而在长期则应持续利率市场化改革，进一步向价格调控规则过渡。 |
| 中文关键词:贷款冲击 货币供给 冲击经济波动 DSGE模型 |
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| Credit Shock，Monetary Supply Shock and Macroeconomic Fluctuation |
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| Abstract:Through the establishment of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this article analyzes the macroeconomic fluctuation effects of credit shock and monetary supply shock under the situation of money procedure. Combining with the actual situation of China’s macro economy, and taking the effects of correlation between credit shock and monetary supply shock into account, this paper proved that both shocks would make a larger output fluctuation, and the response of economic to credit shock can be more robust. Finally, we argue that monetary policy should try to reduce the control of the target of new loans in short terms, but should keep reforming on interest rate marketization and make the transition to relying more on interest rate procedure. |
| keywords:Credit Shock Monetary Supply Shock EconomicFluctuation DSGE Model |
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