金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

胡宗义; 郑瑶

金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

引用本文：胡宗义，郑瑶.金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费——基于ARDL模型的实证研究[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2016,(4):107-113

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作者	单位
胡宗义，郑瑶	（湖南大学金融与统计学院，湖南长沙410079）

中文摘要:利用1980-2013年的样本数据，运用自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）对我国金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费三者间的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明：金融发展对能源消费具有长期显著的负向效应，能源消费对金融发展的长短期影响显著为负；金融发展对对外贸易的长短期弹性系数是3.1068和0.40871，分别通过1%和10%的显著性检验，对外贸易对金融发展的显著影响只存在于短期关系中；能源消费对对外贸易具有长期显著的促进作用，节能计划的实施，会降低贸易发展水平。基于此，我国应充分发挥金融在经济系统中的作用，在促进对外贸易发展的同时减少能源消费，实现经济社会的可持续发展。

中文关键词:金融发展对外贸易能源消费 ARDL模型

Financial Development, Trade Openness and Energy Consumption——Empirical Study Based on ARDL Model

Abstract:Based on the sample data of 1980 to 2013, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship between China’s financial development, trade openness and energy consumption. The results show that the long-term effect of financial development on energy consumption is significantly negative, while energy consumption has a negative impact on financial development both in the long and short term. The long-term and short-term elasticity coefficient of financial development to trade openness are 3.1068 and 0.40871, which are significant at 10% and 1% levels respectively, while a significant impact of trade openness on financial development only exists in short-term relationship. In addition, energy consumption plays a significant role in promoting trade openness in the long term. The implementation of energy saving plan, will reduce the trade openness. China should give full play to the role of financial development in the economic system, which can reduce energy consumption while promoting trade openness, and achieve sustainable economic and social development.

keywords:financial development trade openness energy consumption ARDL model

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