金融杠杆影响中国工业产能过剩的实证分析
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引用本文:张亚斌,熊雅澜,李 轩.金融杠杆影响中国工业产能过剩的实证分析[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2019,(4):45-50
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张亚斌,熊雅澜,李 轩 (湖南大学 经济与贸易学院湖南 长沙 410079) 
中文摘要:优惠信贷安排、优惠土地政策及软财务预算约束在推高企业杠杆率的同时,也加剧了工业产能过剩。利用数据包络法对中国2000-2014年工业36个行业产能过剩指数进行测度,并通过系统GMM模型就杠杆率对中国工业产能过剩的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明:中国工业产能过剩存在整体性和周期性,杠杆率显著加剧了中国工业行业产能过剩,“去杠杆”政策对于产能过剩治理存在良好效果,杠杆率对产能过剩存在正向中介创新效应,然而该效应不但未能明显缓解产能过剩,反而产生了一定的恶化效应。
中文关键词:杠杆率  产能过剩  DEA模型  中介效应  GMM模型
 
An Empirical Analysis of Financial Leverage Aggravating China's Industrial Overcapacity
Abstract:Preferential credit arrangement, favorable land policy and weak financial budget constraint have also exacerbated industrial overcapacity while pushing up corporate financial leverage. This paper uses the output-oriented CCR model to measure overcapacity indicators by considering the data envelopment analysis method (DEA) of “outdated production capacity”. Simultaneously, based on the panel data of 35 industries in China, this paper introduces the generalized moment estimation model (GMM) to test the actual effects of financial leverage aggravating the industrial overcapacity in China. The empirical results show that while financial leverage is rising, China’s industrial overcapacity is exacerbated, which means that China's "de-capacity" needs to fundamentally promote enterprises to "de-leverage."
keywords:leverage  over-capacity  DEA model  mediation effect  GMM model
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