中国城市TFP增长与潜在增长率
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引用本文:张 自 然.中国城市TFP增长与潜在增长率[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2019,(6):34-42
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张 自 然 (中国社会科学院 经济研究所北京 100836) 
中文摘要:利用1990~2018年间中国264个地级及以上城市的投入和产出数据,本文通过非参数DEA Malmquist生产率指数法分析了中国城市全要素生产率增长及其分解项技术进步、技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率等的变化及其对经济增长的贡献率,并探讨了资本和劳动对经济增长的贡献率,进一步采用HP滤波法研究了全要素生产率增长趋势、投入要素增长趋势及其波动对经济潜在增长率的影响,得出结论并提出如下政策建议:1)优化投入要素和资源的合理配置,通过技术研发、人力资本、制度变革等多种方面来提升全要素生产率增长及其对经济增长的贡献率;2)提高各地区固定资本存量的有效使用效率; 3) 提高劳动的有效参与率。
中文关键词:城市  TFP增长; 潜在增长率; HP滤波; Malmquist指数法
 
TFP Growth and Potential Growth Rate of Chinese Cities
Abstract:This paper analyzes the total factor productivity growth and technological progress, technical efficiency, pure technology Changes in efficiency, and scale efficiency of Chinese cities through non-parametric DEA Malmquist productivity index method using the input and output data of 264 prefecture-level and above-level cities in China from 1990 to 2018. This paper analyzes the contribution of total factor productivity growth and related factors to economic growth, and explores the contribution of capital and labor to GDP, and further analyzes the impact of total factor productivity growth, and related factor growth trends and their volatility on the potential growth rate of the economy using HP filtering method. The conclusions are drawn and the following policy recommendations are proposed: 1) To optimize the rational allocation of input factors and resources, and enhance the growth of total factor productivity and its contribution to economic growth through various aspects such as technology research and development, human capital, and institutional reform; 2) To improve the effective use efficiency of fixed capital stocks in various regions;3) Improve the effective participation rate of labor.
keywords:cities  TFP growth  potential growth rate  HP filtering  Malmquist index methods
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