空间聚集条件下城市TFP增长的影响因素研究
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引用本文:张 自 然.空间聚集条件下城市TFP增长的影响因素研究[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2021,(3):39-48
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张 自 然 (中国社会科学院 经济研究所北京 100836) 
中文摘要:利用中国264个地级及地级以上城市的空间面板数据和空间杜宾模型,研究在空间聚集条件下,全要素生产率(TFP)增长与城市规模及人力资本、基础设施等相关影响因素的关系,得出以下主要结论:在考虑空间权重后,全要素生产率增长指数与城市规模由倒“U”型曲线变为“U”型曲线,全要素生产率增长指数与城市规模对数的间接效应成“U”型曲线,直接效应和总效应成倒“U”型曲线;人力资本、基础设施指数、第三产业占总的就业比重、财政收入、科学支出的直接效应为负,间接效应和总效应为正;人口密度、房价收入比指标的直接效应为正,间接效应和总效应为负;教育支出、城市化水平、万人图书馆藏量、工资收入、劳动生产率、劳动力的直接效应、间接效应和总效应都为负。〖BP(〗〖BP)〗并提出相应的政策建议。
中文关键词:全要素生产率  城市规模  空间聚集  人力资本  科学支出
 
Research on the Influencing Factors of the Growth of City Total Factor Productivity under the Condition of Spatial Agglomeration
Abstract:This paper uses the spatial panel data and spatial Dubin model of 264 prefecture-level and above cities in China under the Condition of Spatial Agglomeration, and studies the relationship between total factor productivity(TFP) growth and related factors such as city size, human capital, and infrastructure,etc. The main conclusions are in the following:after considering the spatial weight, the total factor productivity growth index and the city size changes from an inverted "U" curve to a "U" curve, and the indirect effect of total factor productivity growth index and the logarithm of city size becomes a "U" curve, the direct effect, and the total effect becomes an inverted "U" shaped curve; The direct effects of human capital, infrastructure index, tertiary industry’s share of total employment, fiscal revenue, and scientific expenditure are negative,and the indirect effects, and the total effects are positive; The direct effects of population density, housing price-to-income ratio indicators are positive, and the indirect effect and the total effect are negative. The direct effects,the indirect effects and the total effects of education expenditure, urbanization level, library holdings per 10,000 people, wage income, labor productivity and labor force are negative. And the corresponding policy suggestions have been put forward.
keywords:total factor productivity  city size  spatial agglomeration  human capital  scientific expenditure
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