冲突预防与进口的“囤积效应”：基于中美贸易摩擦的分析

谢建国1; 2; 叶  君2

冲突预防与进口的“囤积效应”：基于中美贸易摩擦的分析

引用本文：谢建国1,2,叶君2.冲突预防与进口的“囤积效应”：基于中美贸易摩擦的分析[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2022,(1):66-76

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作者	单位
谢建国1,2,叶君2	（1.南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心，江苏南京 210093；2．南京大学经济学院, 江苏南京 210093）

中文摘要:采用反事实分析法和双重差分法，研究了中美贸易摩擦对中国对美出口的影响。研究发现，在美国宣布对中国产品加征关税初期，中国对美出口出现短暂的出口加速效应（进口囤积效应），9个月后，关税加征的出口抑制效应才得以体现。文章分析结果表明，中美贸易摩擦导致中国对美出口总量平均减少了15.3%。细分产品层面的研究发现，生产原料类产品受到的影响大于消费品受到的影响，威胁加征关税会出现出口加速与进口囤积效应，而直接的关税加征则没有囤积效应。考虑到中美贸易摩擦的长期性与复杂性，中国企业应拓展出口渠道，积极开拓欧洲国家和“一带一路”沿线国家的潜在市场，使得出口市场多样化的同时，积极挖掘国内市场需求，尽量减少中美贸易摩擦的负面影响。

中文关键词:中美贸易摩擦货物贸易反事实分析囤积效应

Conflict Prevention and the "Hoarding Effect" of Imports——An Analysis Based on Sino-US Trade Friction

Abstract:The article uses counterfactual analysis and difference-in-difference method to study the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China's exports to the US. The study found that in the early days when the United States announced additional tariffs on Chinese products, China's exports to the United States had a short-term export acceleration effect (import hoarding effect). After a lag of nine months, the export restraint effect of the tariff increase came into full play. The analysis results of the article show that the Sino-US trade friction has reduced China's total exports to the US by an average of 15.3%. The research on the sub-product level found that in the Sino-US trade friction, the impact on the production of raw materials is greater than that on consumer products. Threatening to impose tariffs will have export acceleration and import hoarding effects, while direct tariff increases have no hoarding effects. It is concluded that, considering the long-term and complex nature of Sino-US trade frictions, Chinese companies should expand export channels and actively explore potential markets in European countries and the countries along the “Belt and Road” so as to diversify their export markets while actively tapping domestic market demand minimizes the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction.

keywords:Sino-US trade friction goods trade counterfactual analysis hoarding effect

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