| 提振信心与促进经济发展：基于贸易摩擦的视角 |
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| 引用本文：马 理1，李厚渊2，张人中1.提振信心与促进经济发展：基于贸易摩擦的视角[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2023,(4):40-49 |
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| 中文摘要:以中美贸易摩擦为背景，构建开放经济条件下的DSGE模型，分析了贸易摩擦通过信心传导渠道对中国经济的影响。研究结果显示：贸易摩擦对中国经济有负面影响，导致投资减少、产出下降与资本市场波动加剧，而企业家信心受损与银行家信心受损放大了贸易摩擦的负面影响。基于此，提出如下政策建议：提振经济信心，促进国内企业发展；大力发展高科技产业，提高与美国博弈的底气；坚持贸易自由与精准反制相结合，增加赢得正当贸易权利的信心；充分发挥与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易的替代效应，保持贸易增长的信心。 |
| 中文关键词:贸易摩擦 提振信心 经济发展 |
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| Boosting Confidence and Promoting Economic Development: From the Perspective of Trade Friction |
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| Abstract:Taking the trade friction between China and the United States as the background, an open economic DSGE model is constructed to analyze the impact of trade friction on the Chinese economy through confidence transmission channels. It shows that trade friction has a negative impact on the Chinese economy, leading to a decrease in investment and output, and an increase in volatility of the capital market. The negative impact is amplified by the loss of confidence among entrepreneurs and bankers. Suggestions are as follows: to boost economic confidence and promote the development of domestic enterprises; to develope high-tech industries and enhance the confidence in the game with the US; to combile the trade freedom and precise countermeasures to increase confidence in winning legitimate trade rights; to promote the substitution of trade with countries along the one Belt one Road and maintain confidence in trade growth. |
| keywords:trade friction boosting confidence economic development |
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