贸易网络中心性对国际证券资本流动的影响研究——基于全球市场的经验数据
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引用本文:欧阳海琴1,2.贸易网络中心性对国际证券资本流动的影响研究——基于全球市场的经验数据[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2024,(2):76-84
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欧阳海琴1,2 (1.江西师范大学 财政金融学院江西 南昌 3300222.江西财经大学 博士后流动站江西 南昌 330013) 
中文摘要:基于1990—2019年全球131个国家(地区)的进出口贸易等数据构建贸易网络中心性测度指标,采用面板回归模型实证检验贸易网络中心性对国际证券资本流动的影响效应。结果表明:贸易网络中心性水平提升,该国国际证券资本(净)流入将受到抑制;抑制作用的机制通过影响股票和债券的国际投资得以实现,次贷危机期间及发达国家所受到的抑制效果更趋明显;抑制作用的强弱受各国的股市波动率、银行业发展水平和贷款风险溢价等因素影响,套利因素将促使资本经由处于贸易网络中心的国家流到边缘国家。我国应结合贸易网络中心优势产生的外部影响力和控制力,优化政策体系,提高国际证券资本配置效率。
中文关键词:贸易网络中心性  股市波动率  银行业发展  贷款风险溢价  国际证券资本流动
 
Research on the Impact of Trade Network Centrality on International Securities Capital Flows:Empirical Data Based on Global Markets
Abstract:Using the data such as import and export trade from 1990 to 2019 for 131 countries (regions) worldwide, this study constructs centrality measurement indicators for the trade network and employs a panel regression model to empirically test the impact of trade network centrality on international securities capital flows. The results show that as the level of trade network centrality increases, the country's international securities capital (net) inflows will be suppressed; the suppression mechanism is achieved by affecting international investments in stocks and bonds, with the suppression effect being more pronounced during the subprime crisis in developed countries; the strength of the suppression is influenced by the factors such as the country's stock market volatility, the level of banking sector development, and loan risk premium, with arbitrage factors prompting capital to flow from trade network central countries to peripheral countries. China should combine the external influence and control generated by the centrality advantage of the trade network to optimize the policy system and improve the efficiency of international securities capital allocation.
keywords:trade network centrality  stock market volatility  banking development  loan risk premium  international securities capital flows
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