共建“一带一路”与贸易竞争互补关系优化

许和连1; 夏洁瑾2

共建“一带一路”与贸易竞争互补关系优化

引用本文：许和连1，夏洁瑾2.共建“一带一路”与贸易竞争互补关系优化[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2025,(4):56-67

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作者	单位
许和连1，夏洁瑾2	（1.湖南大学经济与贸易学院，湖南长沙 410079；2.长沙理工大学经济与管理学院，湖南长沙 410076）

中文摘要:基于2009—2020年跨国面板数据，采用双重差分方法检验“一带一路”倡议是否优化了中国与共建国家间贸易竞争与互补关系。研究发现：“一带一路”倡议显著增强了中国出口与共建国家进口贸易间的互补性，对中国与共建国家间出口贸易竞争关系及中国进口与共建国家出口间互补性影响不显著。“一带一路”倡议对中国出口与共建国家进口间互补关系的促进效应在签署合作文件当年开始显现，并呈现随时间推进不断增强的趋势。异质性分析结果表明，“一带一路”倡议对中国出口与经济发展水平高、制度质量高的共建国家进口间互补关系的促进作用更大。进一步检验发现，“一带一路”背景下中国与共建国家间产能合作、文化交流和贸易便利水平提升所产生的贸易创造效应大于贸易替代效应。

中文关键词:一带一路贸易竞争贸易互补贸易关系优化

Co-construction of the Belt and Road and Optimization of Trade Competition and Complementation

Abstract:Based on the cross-country panel data from 2009 to 2020，we use the DID method to test whether the Belt and Road Initiative has optimized the trade competition and complementation between China and co-building countries. The results show that the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly enhanced the complementation between China’s exports and the imports of the co-construction countries，but has no significant impact on the export competition between China and the co-construction countries and the complementation between China’s imports and the exports of the co-construction countries. The promoting effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the complementary relationship between China’s exports and imports of co-construction countries began to appear in the signing year of the cooperation documents，and has been growing over time. The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the Belt and Road Initiative plays a greater role in promoting the complementation between China’s exports and imports from the co-construction countries with high level of economic development and high institutional quality. Further tests show that under the background of the Belt and Road，the effect of trade creation generated by production capacity cooperation，cultural exchanges and the improvement of trade facilitation between China and co-construction countries is greater than the effect of trade substitution.

keywords:the Belt and Road trade competition trade complementation optimization of trade relations

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