| 海南自贸港产业升级的时空异质性及其驱动机理 |
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| 引用本文：罗舟1,2.海南自贸港产业升级的时空异质性及其驱动机理[J].湖南大学学报社会科学版,2025,(6):72-81 |
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| 中文摘要:基于2012—2023年中国各省份及海南18市县的面板数据，借助SDID评价海南自贸港产业升级的阶段性成效，进一步运用Dagum基尼系数分解与Kernel密度估计方法刻画海南产业升级的时空异质性，并利用随机森林模型揭示其驱动机理。结果显示：自贸港建设对海南产业升级产生正向影响，且政策效应呈扩大趋势。海南产业升级在空间上呈现东高西低、沿海“高地”、中部“洼地”的分布特征，总体离散程度呈上升趋势。经济发展水平、基础设施建设与对外开放度为驱动海南产业升级分化的关键因素，时空异质性的主要来源为因素边际效应与海南各市县对要素的吸收与应用效率差异。基于此，要聚焦重点领域，推进制度集成创新；依托区位优势，形成差异化分工；完善联动机制，强化区间协同合作。 |
| 中文关键词:海南自贸港 产业升级 时空异质性 驱动机理 |
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| Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity and Its Driving Mechanisms of Industrial Upgrading in Hainan Free Trade Port |
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| Abstract:Based on the panel data of all provinces in China and 18 cities/counties in Hainan from 2012 to 2023，we evaluate the phased achievements of industrial upgrading in Hainan Free Trade Port with the assistance of the SDID method. Furthermore，we characterize the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of Hainan’s industrial upgrading by employing the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and kernel density estimation. Lastly，we uncover its driving mechanisms using the Random Forest model. The results show that: firstly，the construction of the Free Trade Port has had a positive impact on Hainan’ndustrial upgrading，with the policy effect exhibiting an expanding trend. Secondly，Hainan’s industrial upgrading demonstrates a spatial distribution characterized by higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west，with “highlands” along the coast and “lowlands” in the central region，and the overall degree of dispersion is on an upward trend. Thirdly，economic development level，infrastructure，and the degree of openness are the key factors driving the differentiation of Hainan’s industrial upgrading，and the main sources of spatio-temporal heterogeneity arise from the marginal effects of these factors and the differences in the absorption and application efficiency of elements among various cities and counties in Hainan. Based on this，it is necessary to focus on key areas to promote integrated institutional innovation；leverage regional advantages to form differentiated division of labor,and improve the linkage mechanism and strengthen regional collaboration and cooperation. |
| keywords:Hainan Free Trade Port industrial upgrading spatiotemporal heterogeneity driving mechanisms |
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